Housing Market Trends – from 2019 to 2022

In 2019, we blogged on predicted real estate trends which included millennials’ desire to rent. Fast forward through the COVID pandemic to the highest inflation rates in 40 years, and now millennials – along with the rest of the country – are looking at a picture few imagined: choosing between impossibly low inventory in an expensive housing market or staggering rent. One hangover from the bite of the 2008 housing crash is that home construction did not recover at the same rate as the economy – fewer homes have been built and it is estimated that the U.S. is short 4 million homes relative to its population.

Yet another contributing factor is the increase of corporations purchasing modest homes (once upon a time known as “starter homes”), renovating them, and then renting to consumers – frequently at a 30 to 40% rent hike.

Is this unfair? According to a “60 Minutes” interview with Tricon Residential’s CEO, Gary Berman, no.  Based in Canada, Tricon is a multi-million dollar company that trades on both the NYSE as well the Toronto stock exchange.

“You can rent the American dream.” -Gary Berman, CEO Tricon Residential

Yet, with millions of dollars in purchasing power backed by Wall Street, Tricon and its competitors have a unique advantage – cash – which young couples dreaming of starter homes simply cannot compete with. Tricon currently owns 30,000 residential homes and purchases an average of 800 homes per month, primarily in the sunbelt.

Companies similar to Tricon include Invitation Homes, American Homes for Rent, and Blackstone Group.

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Below is a sampling of documents pertaining to the real estate industry available on RealDealDocs:

American Homes 4 Rent 8-K

Tricon Residential Inc. Amended And Restated Restricted Share Plan for TRICON RESIDENTIAL INC., TRICON RESIDENTIAL INC

Silver Bay Realty Trust Corp. Announces Agreement To Be Acquired By Tricon Capital Group Inc. In $1.4 Billion All-Cash Transaction; Reports Strong Fourth Quarter And Full Year 2016 Financial Results

Blackstone Group Inc S-8


‘The housing market is in the early stages of a substantial downshift’: Home sales may drop 25% by the end of summer, according to this analyst

Previously published in 2019

Gone are the days when young couples were yearning for homeownership as soon as possible as part of the American Dream. Millennials are renting – and the landlord is likely not a small business/building owner but a corporation such as Equity Residential or a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) such as Blackstone Group.  However, research on emerging real estate trends also indicates that those millennials putting off home buying will keep their eyes on single family houses in suburbs surrounding the “18-hour cities” (vs the “24-hour city” hot market spots: Boston, New York, Los Angeles, Charlotte, San Francisco and Washington, D.C.) when they are ready to settle down.

“Researchers are seeing more evidence the younger generation that put off buying a home has its eyes on single-family homes, meaning that housing surrounding these so-called 18-hour cities—especially if it’s in walkable, transit-oriented developments—is in high demand,” writes Patrick Sisson in his engaging article, The 10 Top Emerging Trends That Will Shape Real Estate in 2019. Sisson adds that statistics from the Census Bureau also indicate the shift to suburbs surrounding the so-called “second cities.”

Here are 3 documents from companies involved with real estate:

1) Invitation Homes

Restricted Stock Grant and Acknowledgment

2) Blackstone Group

Support and Services Agreement

3) Colony Starwood