RedFin Predicts 2023 Housing Market Decline (with Actual Documents)

drawing of small houses on a blue background with a hand holding a magnifying glass hovering over one of the houses.Tightening rates coupled with the lifting of COVID relief measures in some states which had prevented both evictions and foreclosures are being felt in the housing market as inventory increases and prices decrease. Taylor Marr, the Deputy Chief Economist at RedFin (one the largest real estate companies in the country) has made 12 predictions for the upcoming year:

Prediction #1: Home sales will fall to their lowest level since 2011, with a slow recovery in the second half of the year. We expect about 16% fewer existing home sales in 2023 than 2022, landing at 4.3 million.

Prediction #2: Mortgage rates will decline, ending the year below 6%
A homebuyer on a $2,500 monthly budget can afford a $383,750 home with a 6.5% rate; that same buyer could afford a $406,250 home with a 5.8% rate. With a 3% rate, that same buyer could afford a $517,000 home.

Prediction #3: Home prices will post their first year-over-year decline in a decade, but the U.S. will avoid a wave of foreclosures.
Still, the typical homebuyer’s monthly payment will be about 63% higher in 2023 than it was in 2019, but wages will have grown by only ~27%.

Prediction #4: Midwest, Northeast will hold up best as overall market cools

Prediction #5: Rents will fall, and many Gen Zers and young millennials will continue renting indefinitely

Prediction #6: Builders will focus on multifamily rentals

Prediction #7: Investor activity will bottom out in the spring, then rebound

Prediction #8: Gen Zers will seek jobs and apartments in relatively affordable mid-tier cities

Prediction #9: Migration from one part of the country to another will ease from the pandemic boom

Prediction #10: Rising disaster-insurance costs will make extremely climate-risky homes even more expensive

Prediction #11: More cities will follow Minneapolis’ example to curb housing expenses

Prediction #12: Buyers’ agent commissions will rise slightly as fewer agents broker fewer deals at 

The United States has numerous real estate companies but they don’t all operate in the same manner. For instance, RedFin is a technology -based real estate brokerage serving both buyers and sellers through mortgage lending, title insurance, and real estate agents. Zillow is another standout given its online platform with multiple websites and apps which server buyers, sellers, agents, and renters.

Three other notably large real estate companies are Re/Max, Century 21, and Keller Willams – all three operate using a model of franchised brokerages nationally and internationally. And of course there is also Coldwell Banker and Sotheby’s International Realty.

Following are several real estate company documents in the RealDealDocs database:

Seventh Amendment To Lease This Seventh Amendment To Lease (This “Amendment”) Is Dated For Reference Purposes As Of October 19, 2021 Between Fsp-Ric Llc, A Delaware Limited Liability Company (“Landlord”), And Zillow, Inc., A Washington Corporation (“Tenant”). Landlord Is Authorized To Insert The Date

Redfin Corporation Restated Certificate Of Incorporation

Re/Max Holdings, Inc. 8-K

Real Estate Purchase Agreement


Housing Market Predictions 2023: A Post-Pandemic Sales Slump Will Push Home Prices Down For the First Time in a Decade

Image courtesy of Mohammad Hassan at Pixabay